Inflation shock could derail UK recovery, warns IMF –

Good morning. 

Job vacancies have surged to a record high while the number of payrolled employees has recovered to its pre-Covid levels, signalling a robust recovery in the UK job market.

Vacancies rose to 1.1m in the three months to September, while employers added 207,000 workers to their payrolls.

The figures, which cover the last months of the furlough scheme, may embolden the Bank of England to increase interest rates as soon as this year.

5 things to start your day 

1) More tax raids inevitable to beat social care crisis, economists warn Further tax rises will be necessary to tackle the health and social care crisis as the hikes announced by Boris Johnson are not enough to fund the NHS.

2) UK start-ups score record £20bn from tech investors Technology backers have ploughed record amounts of cash into British SMEs this year.

3) Cost of living crisis triggers recession fears Escalating energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks and tax hikes mean some economists now worry Britain faces fresh fall. 

4) ‘Making a profit is more stressful than overseeing public finances’, says John Lewis boss Chairman Dame Sharon White said last night that overseeing billions of pounds of taxpayer money was an easier job than running the retailer. 

5) Ex-Chancellor Hammond joins London crypto firm ‘Spreadsheet Phil’ will serve as an adviser to Copper in his latest private job since leaving politics.

What happened overnight 

Asian shares dropped and the safe-haven dollar held firm on Tuesday as a global energy crunch fuelled inflation fears, clouding investor sentiment before the US corporate earnings season.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.9pc in early trade, after US stocks ended the previous session with mild losses. US stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, fell 0.43pc.

Australian shares slipped 0.29pc while Japan’s Nikkei stock index slid 1.03pc.

China’s blue-chip CSI300 index was 0.75pc lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened down 1.35pc.

Coming up today

Interim results: French Connection

Trading update: Entain

Economics: BRC retail sales (UK), unemployment rate (UK), claimant count rate (UK), average earnings (UK), economic sentiment (EU)

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